Which is the most reliable weather app?

It depends on where you are. For a city on flat ground, almost all of them are about as accurate. In the mountains, on the coast or inside a city, the most accurate is the one that works out your exact spot and updates with what is happening. That is why we publish our figures variable by variable.

Why is the forecast always wrong for my village?

Because most forecasts come from models that see your village, the valley and the surrounding mountains as a single cell of about 25 km. If you live in a valley, on the coast or at high altitude, your real weather drifts away from that average.

What is a high-resolution weather model?

One that works out the weather in small cells, a few kilometres across or less. AXPA KITE does it at 1 km worldwide and, in cities, estimates the wind street by street.

Is AXPA KITE AXPA's own model?

Yes. AXPA develops it, and it is what works out the weather in AXPA Weather and AXPA Planner.

Does it work outside Spain?

Yes, anywhere in the world, on land and at sea. Rain for the next two hours in ten-minute steps is available today in Europe.

How often is it updated?

The current weather and the next few hours, several times an hour. The forecast for the following days, four times a day.

How many days ahead does it forecast?

About two weeks. As with any forecast, reliability drops the further ahead you look: the first few days are the most certain.

How much does it cost?

Nothing. AXPA Weather is free and needs no sign-up. It carries discreet ads, which you can remove with a one-off payment.

Does it replace official warnings?

No. For severe weather warnings, the reference is your country's weather service.

Which weather forecast is most accurate where you are?

The one that works out the exact spot where you will be, not an average over several kilometres around it. Global models, the source of almost every app, see the planet in cells of about 25 km, so they fail where the weather changes over short distances: in the mountains, in cities and on the coast. AXPA KITE, our weather model, works out the weather kilometre by kilometre, and we have measured it: in the mountains, for example, temperature error drops by 21%.

Worldwide coverage: works anywhere.Reviewed on October 30, 2026

Gusts between the streets of Barcelona, with AXPA KITE.

Want to see it on your street?Open AXPA Weather, no sign-up

In short

Almost every weather app starts from global models with cells about 25 km across.
Within one cell, the valley floor and the ridge share a single number, even when they are five or ten degrees apart.
AXPA KITE works out the weather at 1 km worldwide, and in cities it estimates the wind street by street.
In the mountains, temperature error drops by 21%; in strong wind on ridges, wind speed error drops by 38%.
Rain right now is twice as accurate as a global model's, checked against independent rain gauges.
It also covers the sea: wave height, period and direction, currents and water temperature.
It is free to use with no account in AXPA Weather.

Why the forecast gets your spot wrong

A global weather model divides the planet into cells and works out a single value for each one. In the most widely used models, those cells are about 25 km across. That scale is excellent for seeing a front coming, and very poor for saying what the weather will be at one particular point.

A single cell can hold a valley and its peaks, a whole city or a stretch of coast with its coves. The model sees smoothed terrain, as if mountains were hills, and it does not know that streets exist. That is why your app can get the day right for the region and wrong for your village: the frost that settles on the valley floor, the gust that funnels down an avenue or the breeze that reaches the beach mid-afternoon.

What changes with a kilometre-by-kilometre forecast

AXPA KITE brings the forecast down to 1 km and fits it to the real terrain. Each slope has its own temperature, the wind speeds up over a ridge and is channelled along a valley, snow falls at the altitude where it really falls and fog stays in the hollows where it really stays.

On top of that, the current weather and the next few hours are updated several times an hour with what is actually happening. A model runs only a few times a day, and between one run and the next reality gets ahead of it. That gap is what you notice when you step outside.

The Valais at three in the afternoon: a warm valley floor and cold ridges, each slope with its own temperature.

AXPA KITE mean wind in 3D over the Puna de Atacama, in the Andes: stronger on ridges and exposed slopes, lighter on valley floors. — Puna de Atacama, in the Andes. The IFS spreads the wind in a smooth gradient; AXPA KITE strengthens it on the ridges and slows it on the valley floors.

ECMWF IFS wind in the same frame and at the same time: a smooth gradient that does not tell ridges from valleys. — Puna de Atacama, in the Andes. The IFS spreads the wind in a smooth gradient; AXPA KITE strengthens it on the ridges and slows it on the valley floors.

In the mountains

The mountains are where it shows most. Over 1,000 metres of height difference, the temperature can change by six or seven degrees between the village and the summit, and on a clear, still night cold air drains down and pools on the valley floor, which ends up colder than the slopes. A model with large cells sees neither.

AXPA KITE gives the temperature on each slope, the altitude at which rain turns to snow based on the real height of the terrain, the risk of ice, valley fog and the wind on ridges and cols. It is what you need if you head into the mountains on foot, by bike or on skis, or if you have to drive over a mountain pass.

Fog sits in the Po plain while the surrounding slopes stay clear.

AXPA KITE temperature at night in the Val d'Aran: valley floors and peaks with different temperatures, following the terrain. — Val d'Aran, at night. The IFS gives valleys and peaks almost the same temperature; AXPA KITE separates every slope and every valley floor.

ECMWF IFS temperature in the same frame and at the same time: almost a single shade for valleys and peaks. — Val d'Aran, at night. The IFS gives valleys and peaks almost the same temperature; AXPA KITE separates every slope and every valley floor.

In the city

In a city, the wind does not blow the same way on an open avenue as in a narrow street. Buildings slow it down, deflect it and on some corners speed it up. AXPA KITE estimates that wind street by street, from the shape of the buildings: where it is funnelled, where you are sheltered and where the gusts come in.

Alongside it you get the real feels-like temperature, the UV index, air quality and pollen, which in the city decide whether you go for a run at midday or in the evening.

AXPA KITE wind gusts in central Barcelona: the wind speeds up along the wide avenues and drops in the narrow streets. — Central Barcelona, at the same moment. For the IFS the whole neighbourhood has the same gust; AXPA KITE spreads it street by street.

ECMWF IFS gusts in the same frame and at the same time: a single value for the whole neighbourhood. — Central Barcelona, at the same moment. For the IFS the whole neighbourhood has the same gust; AXPA KITE spreads it street by street.

On the coast and at sea

The coast is the third big trap for global models. A 25 km cell mixes sea and land, and with them the breeze that comes in during the afternoon, the wind that speeds up in a strait or the wave that a headland keeps at bay.

AXPA KITE works with the real shape of the coast: the wind squeezed between two shores, the sea breeze and the wave height at your beach, not twenty kilometres offshore. On the map you also have wave period and direction, currents and water temperature. We cover it in detail in the sea forecast guide.

The levante squeezes through the Strait of Gibraltar and blows hardest right in the passage.

Rain in the next hour

To know whether you will get wet in the next hour, what matters is the rain already falling and where it is heading. In Europe, AXPA Weather shows rain for the next two hours in ten-minute steps: when it starts on your street, how much falls and when it stops. From there, the forecast blends into the one for the following hours and days, up to about two weeks.

How much better, measured

Saying a forecast is better is easy. What counts is measuring it variable by variable, against what really happened and at points the calculation has not seen. These are the figures for AXPA KITE against the IFS from the European Centre (ECMWF), the reference global model, at the same place and the same time. Each card says which metric it is and what sample it was measured on.

The improvement is largest exactly where the weather gets most complicated: in the mountains, on cold nights, in strong wind and for rain right now.

AXPA KITE against the IFS

Error or hit score, at the same place and the same time. Less error and more hits is better.

Temperature in the mountains
−21% error
Mean absolute error (MAE)
Where the real terrain is more than 300 m from the height the IFS assumes. 2.35 million comparisons at 5,581 points worldwide.
Temperature on cold nights
−9% error
Mean absolute error (MAE)
Clear, still nights, when cold air pools. 5 million comparisons over 44 days, worldwide.
Wind on ridges
−38% error
Mean absolute error (MAE)
Wind speed on ridges in strong wind, 8 m/s or more.
Wind direction in valleys
−8% error
Median angular error
Within an analysis of 1.2 million comparisons.
Coastal breeze
−5% error
Mean vector error
786 coastal points held out of the calculation, 228,000 hours.
Gusts
−24% error
Mean absolute error (MAE)
305,000 gusts measured over 13 days, from 15 to 27 October 2026. The tendency to overstate them by 1.3 m/s also drops to zero. Compared with our previous version.
Cloud cover under overcast skies
−30% error
Mean absolute error (MAE)
Error in percentage points of sky covered. 30 runs over Europe.
Fog
×1.3 accuracy
Equitable threat score (ETS)
Visibility below 1 km, from 15 to 23 October 2026. Compared with our previous version.
Snow in the mountains
×1.7 accuracy
Critical success index (CSI)
Where the real terrain differs by more than 300 m from the one the IFS assumes. 508 cases measured in autumn 2026.
Rain right now
×2.1 accuracy
Critical success index (CSI)
Against independent rain gauges: 5,600 station hours during a rain episode in Spain on 7 October 2026.

AXPA KITE against the IFS
Variable	IFS (ECMWF)	AXPA KITE
Temperature in the mountains	3.41 °C	2.71 °C
Temperature on cold nights	2.43 °C	2.22 °C
Wind on ridges	3.61 m/s	2.25 m/s
Wind direction in valleys	40.0°	36.6°
Coastal breeze	2.40 m/s	2.29 m/s
Gusts	2.35 m/s	1.79 m/s
Cloud cover under overcast skies	11.5 points	8.0 points
Fog	0.14	0.19
Snow in the mountains	0.45	0.78
Rain right now	0.23	0.49

Measured out of sample: control points are held out of the calculation so the model is not judged on its own data. The figures are for the current weather, where the difference is largest; in the following days AXPA KITE keeps what it knows about the terrain, the coast and the city. Measured in October 2026.

Everything you can look at

AXPA Weather brings more than twenty layers together on a single map, with a slider to move through the coming hours and days. Here we group them by what you are going to do, not by their meteorological names. Layers with the AXPA KITE badge are calculated or corrected by our model; the rest are observations or data from global services, and we say so.

AXPA Weather layers, by what you are going to do

They are all on the same map, one tap away. The simple ones in plain sight; the technical ones for those who look for them.

Wind

For cycling, sailing, paragliding or flying a drone.

Wind and gustsAXPA KITE: Mean wind and gusts at 10 m, with the effect of terrain, coast and breeze.
Wind aloftAXPA KITE: From 10 to 2,000 m above the ground, and by level up to 9 km.
Turbulence: Shear and gust factor near the ground: how much the wind changes with height.

Rain and storms

To know whether you will get wet in the next hour and whether there is a storm nearby.

Rain radar: The rain falling now, with the last two hours every 10 minutes. In Europe.
Rain and snowAXPA KITE: Precipitation intensity and type. In the first few hours, adjusted to the rain actually falling.
Storms: Where conditions favour storms over the coming hours and days.
Lightning: Strikes from the last few minutes, seen from satellite.

Mountains

For hiking, climbing, skiing and mountain pass roads.

TemperatureAXPA KITE: Current, maximum and minimum, slope by slope, with the cold that pools in valleys at night.
Snow and snow lineAXPA KITE: Where it snows based on the real height of the terrain, and how much snow is on the ground.
IceAXPA KITE: Risk of ice on the ground and of icing.
Visibility and fogAXPA KITE: Valley fog and visibility, kilometre by kilometre.

City

For getting around on foot or by bike, going for a run and protecting yourself from heat or polluted air.

Wind between streetsAXPA KITE: Where the wind is funnelled in the city and where you are sheltered.
Feels-like temperatureAXPA KITE: The heat or cold you really feel, with the UTCI thermal stress index.
Air quality and pollen: Air quality index, particles, airborne dust and six types of pollen.
UV index: Ultraviolet radiation, hour by hour.

Sky

For photography, astronomy, solar power and any outdoor plan.

Cloud coverAXPA KITE: How much of the sky is covered, in total and by height.
Cloud baseAXPA KITE: The height at which clouds begin.
Satellite: Colour, infrared and fog imagery, refreshed every 10 minutes.
Solar radiation: The sun's energy reaching the ground, for solar panels and crops.

Sea

For surfing, sailing, kayaking, diving, fishing and swimming.

Wave heightAXPA KITE: Wave height and direction, with the real shape of the coast: the shelter a headland or a bay gives.
Wave period: The seconds between one wave and the next. The longer it is, the more power the swell carries.
Wind over wavesAXPA KITE: Which side the wind hits the wave from: against (offshore, at the coast), cross or with it (onshore). Beach by beach.
Water temperature: Sea surface temperature for the next nine days.
CurrentsAXPA KITE: The surface current, with wind drift in rias and bays. Does not include the tide.

Connectivity

To know whether you will have mobile coverage and a good GPS signal where you are going.

Mobile coverage: The estimated coverage of each operator at each spot.
GPS signal: How good satellite positioning will be at each moment.

What lies behind the figures

Before you believe a figure, it is worth knowing what lies behind it. Here are the essentials: resolution, lead times, metrics, how we verify and what is not yet verified.

Technical sheet

What lies behind the figures in this guide.

Resolution: 1 km worldwide for surface variables. In cities, the wind is estimated at street scale from the shape of the buildings; it is a physical estimate, with no published verification yet.
Updates: Rain for the next 2 hours is recalculated every 10 minutes, and the rest of the current weather and the first few hours every 15 minutes. The multi-day forecast is refreshed four times a day.
Horizon: About two weeks. Rain in 10-minute steps for the next 2 hours, in Europe.
Verification lead time: The published figures are for the analysis, that is, the current weather. AXPA KITE's contribution is greatest there and shrinks over the following hours; at several days it keeps the part tied to the terrain, the coast and the city. We do not yet publish verification by forecast lead time.
Reference: Always out of sample: observation points held out of the calculation in groups (cross-validation) and, for rain, rain gauges from an independent network. It is never compared with data the model itself used in that calculation.
Metrics: MAE and RMSE for continuous variables; median angular error for wind direction; vector error for wind as a vector; CSI for yes-or-no events such as rain or snow; ETS for fog, which corrects for hits by chance.
Baseline: «IFS (ECMWF)» is the global model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the world reference, in its open distribution at 0.25° (about 25 km), at the same point and the same time. Gusts and fog are compared with our previous version, because that is the measure we have.
Not yet verified by us: Urban wind, feels-like temperature and the UV index. Air quality, pollen and sea temperature come from global services and AXPA KITE does not modify them.

Where you can use it

AXPA KITE is the engine of AXPA Weather, our weather app. It is free, needs no account and works anywhere in the world.

It is also the weather in AXPA Planner, our drone flight planner, where AXPA KITE's wind and gusts at flight height, visibility and rain decide whether a flight is feasible and why.

Frequently asked questions

See all questions

Which is the most reliable weather app?: It depends on where you are. For a city on flat ground, almost all of them are about as accurate. In the mountains, on the coast or inside a city, the most accurate is the one that works out your exact spot and updates with what is happening. That is why we publish our figures variable by variable.
Why is the forecast always wrong for my village?: Because most forecasts come from models that see your village, the valley and the surrounding mountains as a single cell of about 25 km. If you live in a valley, on the coast or at high altitude, your real weather drifts away from that average.
What is a high-resolution weather model?: One that works out the weather in small cells, a few kilometres across or less. AXPA KITE does it at 1 km worldwide and, in cities, estimates the wind street by street.
Is AXPA KITE AXPA's own model?: Yes. AXPA develops it, and it is what works out the weather in AXPA Weather and AXPA Planner.
Does it work outside Spain?: Yes, anywhere in the world, on land and at sea. Rain for the next two hours in ten-minute steps is available today in Europe.
How often is it updated?: The current weather and the next few hours, several times an hour. The forecast for the following days, four times a day.
How many days ahead does it forecast?: About two weeks. As with any forecast, reliability drops the further ahead you look: the first few days are the most certain.
How much does it cost?: Nothing. AXPA Weather is free and needs no sign-up. It carries discreet ads, which you can remove with a one-off payment.
Does it replace official warnings?: No. For severe weather warnings, the reference is your country's weather service.

The figures in this guide are real measurements over the periods and samples stated for each one, and they may change as the model evolves. The forecast is for information only: for official severe weather warnings, check your country's weather service.